College, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

002
FXAK69 PAFG 121412
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
612 AM AKDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A low in the Bering Sea/West Coast will bring southerly flow for
the Interior and daily showers for the West Coast and Interior.
Southerly wind gusts as high as 40 mph through the AK Range passes
are possible through the day today and into tomorrow. Rainfall
totals through Tuesday are expected to range from 0.50" to 0.75"
for the West Coast and Western Interior with an isolated 1.00"
possible and 0.25" or less for the central and eastern Interior.
This low is expected to linger for the next few days, moderating
our temperatures and continue bringing chances of showers for
northern Alaska. Thunderstorms will be possible for the eastern
Brooks Range and Arctic Plains today and tomorrow.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- A cooler and wetter pattern for most of the Interior with highs
  in the 60s/low 70s and showers around, but the AlCan remains
  warm with highs in the 70s to near 80 through Monday.

- Isolated rain showers will be possible through the beginning of
  the week with the possibility of isolated thunderstorms on
  Monday afternoon for the Central Interior.

- Breezy conditions are expected through the Alaska Range passes
  is expected to persist through the day tomorrow and into the
  beginning of the week. Southerly wind gusts as high a 40 mph are
  possible.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Periods of rain continue each day through early next week with
  breezy conditions, especially along the coast. Rain totals
  through Tuesday = 0.50" to 0.75" with an isolated 1.00" possible.

- Minor rises in water levels of 1 to 3 feet are expected with
  each high tide cycle today to Tuesday in Eastern Norton Sound
  and the Yukon Delta. 3 feet in E. Norton Sound, 1 to 2 feet for
  the Nome and Yukon Delta Coast.

- Cool temperatures expected with highs in the 50s and 60s for
  most of the area through early next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Isolated thunderstorms in the Brooks Range and Arctic Plains
  will be possible today and tomorrow.

- Seasonable temperatures expected into early next week with
  periods of showers and isolated storms, especially for the
  Eastern Brooks Range.

- When there`s southerly flow, fog and stratus will generally stay
  offshore. North/northeast flow may cause fog and stratus to
  develop.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...

Broad upper-level troughing due to a low will be driving our
weather for the next week, moderating our temperatures and
bringing chances of daily showers for northern Alaska. Due to the
low being mainly over the Bering Sea and West Coast, the Interior
will be generally dominated by southerly flow, increasing wind
gusts as high as 40 mph through the Alaska Range and chinook flow
for portions of the Interior into next week. With the onshore flow
from the coast, a water level rise of 1 to 3 feet during high
tides will be possible to Tuesday. This low is expected to bring
steady rainfall for the West Coast and western Interior with
totals ranging generally 0.50-0.75" with an isolated 1.00"
possible through Tuesday while the Interior will generally see
0.25" or less. This system is expected to generally be
thunderstorm-free, though isolated thunderstorms will continue to
be possible for the eastern Brooks Range, Arctic Plains and
Central Interior today before just focusing on the Central
Interior tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The areas to focus on for fire weather are the Eastern Brooks
Range...Yukon Flats and perhaps down into the Fortymile. Those
regions will continue to stay dry into the middle of the week even
as temperatures cool down due to some cloud cover. Westerly winds 10
to 20 mph with some higher gusts will occur in the Yukon Flats and
surrounding terrain both Sunday and Monday. Any new starts will have
a chance to grow in those areas.

A broad open trough over the West Coast of Alaska is rotating
multiple upper level disturbances in a south-southwest flow aloft.
With this weather pattern clouds...wetting rains...and high
humidities are currently spreading up over the West Coast and into
the Western Interior. On Monday this widespread rainfall and cooler
air begins to spread up over the Central Interior...the White
Mountains and the Brooks Range. As we have been emphasizing in our
Spot Forecasts...the current active fires will experience a wetting
rain in the coming days. By Wednesday and Thursday the rain and
cooler temperatures spread into the Eastern Interior...Fortymile and
Yukon Flats.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

No major concerns at this time, the Tanana river will continue to
drop to near normal levels this weekend.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Wednesday through Saturday

Broadscale troughing over the Bering Sea is expected to continue
through the remainder of the work week. Disturbances rotate up into
the Alaska Range and over the Interior in a south-southwest flow
aloft. Bands of stratiform rain will continue to move up into the
Kuskokwim Valley and the Western Interior...and then eventually up
over the Central and Eastern Interior. Lightning will be minimal
during this time. The unseasonably cool air and the rain will
eventually move up into the Brooks Range...Arctic Plains...and the
Yukon Flats.

For next weekend there remains large model divergence on what the
pattern will look like. The GFS and its Ensemble begins to bring a
ridge axis from the Gulf of Alaska as well as Western Canada into
the Central and Eastern Interior. This would allow for a return of
warmer temperatures and thunderstorm chances. The ECMWF and its
Ensemble has broad scale troughing over the entire state and keeps
the ridging off to our east over Western Canada. This would keep
persistent cloud cover, showers, and cooler temperatures across
Northern Alaska through the end of next weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...

A Special Weather Statement has been issued for the Southern
Seward Peninsula, Eastern Norton Sound and Yukon Delta Coast for
minor water level rises from Sunday to Tuesday.

Weak south to southwesterly wind will result in minor sea level
rises. Expect rises of 1 to 3 feet above the normal high tide line
with each high tide cycle from Sunday to Tuesday. Winds will be
around 15 to 25 mph from the south/southwest tonight, 10 to 20 mph
through Monday, then weaken and shift northerly on Tuesday.

The highest water levels, up to 3 feet above the high tide line,
are expected in Eastern Norton Sound while the Yukon Delta and
Nome Coast are expected to be around 1 to 2 feet.

Significant impacts are not expected but those with belongings on
the beach may want to bring them further away from the water as a
precaution.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-805-811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-817-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ855.
     Gale Warning for PKZ856.
&&

$$

Lewis
Maier - Fire Weather/Extended Forecast